Understanding the Rising Supermarket Food Prices: Insights from Which?’s Inflation Tracker

Introduction

In recent times, the cost of groceries has been a cause for concern among consumers. With overall inflation reaching its highest level in over four decades, it is crucial to delve deeper into the factors driving the soaring prices. This blog post explores the groundbreaking insights provided by Which?’s monthly food inflation tracker, shedding light on the supermarkets, food and drink categories, and rising prices that demand our attention.

A Comprehensive Analysis

Which?’s inflation tracker stands out for its ability to provide a thorough examination of supermarket food and drink inflation. By analyzing tens of thousands of prices, the tracker uncovers valuable insights, including:

1. Monthly Comparison: The tracker reveals which supermarkets experience the highest and lowest inflation rates every month.

2. Food and Drink Categories: It identifies the types of food and drink with the most significant price increases, giving consumers an understanding of where their budgets are most affected.

3. Brand Comparison: The tracker examines the disparity between the price increases of branded and own-label groceries.

4. Budget vs. Premium Products: It highlights whether budget ranges or more premium offerings are experiencing faster price escalations.

Tracking Methodology

The inflation tracker focuses on 20 popular categories of food and drink across eight major supermarkets: Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons, Ocado, Sainsbury’s, Tesco, and Waitrose. The analysis compares prices over three-month and one-month periods, year-on-year, considering discounts but excluding multibuys or loyalty card offers. The figures are weighted based on supermarket market share and sales volume for each product category.

Food Inflation in June 2023

In the three months leading up to June 30, 2023, the annual inflation rate for supermarket food and drink slightly decreased to 16.4%, down from its peak of 17% in the three months prior to the end of April. Comparing the one-month periods, inflation dropped from 16.5% to 15.4% in June 2023. These calculations are based on 24,391 product price points for the three-month period and 25,170 for the one-month period.

Insights on Two-Year Inflation

While year-on-year inflation is on the decline, it is essential to consider the context of prices from two years ago. In June 2023, Which? also examined two-year inflation. The findings indicated that food prices had surged by 25.8% compared to June 2021, with certain items experiencing even more significant price hikes.

Examples of price increases include a pack of six Mr. Kipling bakewell cake slices, which skyrocketed by 175% from £1 to £2.75 at Sainsbury’s. Similarly, Mr. Kipling chocolate slices at Tesco rose by 159%, going from £1 to £2.59. At Morrisons, the average price of own-label mozzarella (125g) increased by 142.9% from 49p to £1.19 over the two-year period. Asda’s own-label Free From Special Flakes (300g) saw a surge of 141.9%, rising from 62p in 2021 to £1.50 in 2023. Lidl’s Chene D’argent French Brie (200g) experienced a 134.2% price increase, going from 79p to £1.85.

Supermarket Rankings

When it comes to rising prices, the latest figures from the tracker highlight Lidl as having the highest levels of inflation, with a 21.4% increase in June year-on-year. Aldi closely follows with a 19.3% inflation rate.

Categories Experiencing the Highest Inflation

The tracker also reveals the food types facing the highest inflation rates. Cheese remains the fastest rising category among the 20 analyzed, while yogurts, biscuits, and milk are also significantly impacted.

Conclusion

Which?’s supermarket inflation tracker offers invaluable insights into the ongoing surge in food prices. As consumers face the challenges of increased grocery costs, understanding the trends, supermarkets, and categories affected can empower individuals to make informed choices. By keeping track of this data, consumers can better navigate the changing landscape of supermarket food prices.